Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.4)
(155)
37,869
U.S. stocks remained mostly negative on Friday following the lackluster performance
Nifty
(0.4)
(41)
11,430
of the two previous sessions. The major averages have all moved to the downside
Mid Cap
(0.8)
(130)
16,211
after closing mixed for two straight days. The Dow Jones fell by 0.8% to 25,313 and
Small Cap
(0.8)
(133)
16,784
the Nasdaq decreased by 0.7% to 7,839.
Bankex
(0.8)
(255)
31,748
U.K. shares fell on Friday as a fresh turmoil in Turkey as well as renewed fears of a
trade war between the U.S. and China overshadowed upbeat GDP data for the
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
second quarter. Gross domestic product rose 0.4 percent, matching expectations
and faster than the 0.2 percent expansion seen in the first quarter. The benchmark
Dow Jones
(0.8)
(196)
25,313
FTSE 100 was down by 1% to 7,667.
Nasdaq
(0.7)
(53)
7,839
FTSE
(1)
(75)
7,667
On domestic front, Indian shares closed lower on Friday, with banks coming under
selling pressure after State Bank of India, the country's largest lender, reported a loss
Nikkei
(1.3)
(300)
22,298
for a third consecutive quarter on increased provisions for non-performing assets.
Hang Seng
(0.8)
(241)
28,367
Weak global cues also kept investors nervous. The BSE Sensex dipped by 0.4% to
Shanghai Com
0.0
1
2,795
37,869.
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
News Analysis
Advances
1,031
924
Aviation authority DGCA to evaluate financial health of Jet Airways
Declines
1,714
882
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Unchanged
130
85
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Volumes (` Cr)
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
BSE
3,235
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
NSE
33,576
Top Picks
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
FII
917
1,055
-2,355
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
702
867
23.6
*MFs
15
155
72,753
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
611
720
17.8
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
317
410
29.5
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
976
1,007
3.2
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
403
589
46.1
DEN
60
19.8
More Top Picks on Pg4
EICHERMOT
29011
5.6
RNAVAL
20
5.0
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
KWALITY
19
5.0
ReadingExpectations
VOLTAS
620
4.6
Aug 14, 2018 India
Exports YoY%
17.57
Aug 14, 2018 China
Industrial Production (YoY)
6.00
6.30
Aug 14, 2018 India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
5.77
5.22
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Aug 14, 2018 UK
Jobless claims change
7.80
JETAIRWAYS
276
-8.4
Aug 14, 2018 Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
1.60
2.50
More Events on Pg7
JPASSOCIAT
13
-7.0
JINDALSTEL
203
-6.2
HCC
12
-5.5
FSL
61
-5.5
As on Aug 08, 2018
Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
News Analysis
Aviation authority DGCA to evaluate financial health of Jet Airways
Aviation regulator DGCA is set to conduct a financial audit of the Naresh Goyal-
promoted Jet Airways, amid its fiscal conditions under pressure due to the
surging jet fuel prices and low fares, a source said.
The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has already evaluated the
financial health of the national carrier Air India recently, besides conducting a
special audit of Air Deccan, the source close to the development said. The
financial audit of airlines, which has been conducted in the past too, is done to
assess their fiscal health and also ensure that they are not compromising on safety
due to financial stress.
"We will conduct the financial audit of Jet Airways from August 27. A similar audit
of Air India has been completed," the source said. The financial audit of Air
India was necessitated as the airline has been defaulting on salary payments to its
employees, besides grounding a number of aircraft due to payment issues with
vendors. The two carriers, which together have been mandated to fly on 84 routes
under the government's regional connectivity scheme, had recently cancelled a
number of flights, citing shortage of pilots and technical glitch in their aircraft, the
source said.
Economic and Political News
East, West freight corridors likely to be commissioned by March 2020
National retail trade policy proposal back in consumer affairs department
Manufacturing sectors with high production growth rose in Q1: CII
Corporate News
PVR to acquire South India-based SPI Cinemas for around Rs 8.5 bn
Sun TV plans to foray into Bengali and Marathi entertainment space
BPCL gets green nod for Rs 7.47 billion ethanol project in Odisha
DCM Shriram to invest Rs 13 bn to expand sugar, chemical business
Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Tata Steel Ltd - August 13, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
35,924
29,657
21.1
36,132
(0.6)
EBIDTA
6,762
4,345
55.6
4,024
68
%
18.8
14.7
11.1
PAT
2,700
921
193.2
14,688
(81.6)
Cadila Healthcare Ltd - August 13, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
3,065
2,197
39.5
3,250
(5.7)
EBIDTA
688
277
148.2
855
(19.6)
%
22.4
12.6
26.3
PAT
448
138
224.6
591
(24.2)
Tata Chemicals - August 13, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
2,729
2,570
6.2
2,555
6.8
EBIDTA
552
450
22.6
512
7.8
%
20.2
17.5
20.0
PAT
214
242
(11.7)
1,210
(82.3)
Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,757
702
867
23.6
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
19,184
611
720
17.8
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
ICICI Bank
2,11,091
328
416
26.8
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would
help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,158
403
589
46.1
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,862
326
475
45.6
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,460
525
851
62.2
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,76,444
9,151
10,820
18.2
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,850
344
591
72.0
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,906
855
870
1.8
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
32,194
146
218
49.1
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,664
317
410
29.5
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,375
605
1,016
67.9
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,64,963
2,115
2,350
11.1
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise and
healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
1,17,482
945
1,050
11.1
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,897
921
1,230
33.5
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
12,542
976
1,007
3.2
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
31,959
1,409
1,764
25.2
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
19,693
203
327
61
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,490
1,019
1,100
7.9
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
35,749
610
780
21.9
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
88,333
383
435
13.6
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
24,042
569
670
17.8
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the leading
brands in kitchen appliances in India after its
successful transformation from a single product
TTK Prestige
7,089
6,085
7,500
23.3
company to offering an entire gamut of home
and kitchen appliances. We are expecting a
CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25% in PAT over
FY2018-20.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,400
256
360
40.8
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,709
1,815
2,178
20.0
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,584
1,999
2,500
25.1
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,521
206
333
62.0
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
35,418
177
210
18.4
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date
Company
Monday
August 13, 2018
Tata Chemicals, Automotive Axle, Tata Steel, Abbott India, Tide Water Oil India, Cadila
Healthcare, Indoco Remedies, GIPCL, Competent Automobiles, The Byke Hospitality
Tuesday
August 14, 2018
Allahabad Bank, Monnet Ispat, Finolex Cables, Cravatex, Sun Pharma
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Aug 14, 2018
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jul
17.57
7:30 AMChina
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jul
6.00
6.30
12:00 PMIndia
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Jul
5.77
5.22
2:00 PMUK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Jul
7.80
11:30 AMGermany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
2Q P
1.60
2.50
Aug 15, 2018
2:00 PMUK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jul
2.40
2.50
6:45 PMUS
Industrial Production
%
Jul
0.62
0.35
Aug 16, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Aug 11
213.00
6:00 PMUS
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jul
1,173.00
1,273.00
6:00 PMUS
Building permits
Thousands
Jul
1,292.00
1,308.00
Aug 17, 2018
7:30 PMUS
Existing home sales
Million
Jul
5.38
5.43
Aug 22, 2018
2:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Jul F
2.10
2.10
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
6.9
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
4.8
4.6
4.8
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
6.0
4.0
3.2
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
z
6.0
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.6
54.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
52.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
50.0
3.0
2.4
48.0
2.0
46.0
1.0
44.0
42.0
-
40.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
78,768
5.2
(6.5)
17.3
Russia
Micex
4,299
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,471
4.4
5.8
15.4
China
Shanghai Composite
2,794
0.6
(11.6)
(14.9)
South Africa
Top 40
51,616
(0.4)
(0.4)
4.6
Mexico
Mexbol
49,244
0.5
5.4
(3.9)
Indonesia
LQ45
960
3.6
1.8
(0.9)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,805
7.0
(2.0)
2.6
Thailand
SET 50
1,142
5.5
(2.6)
12.3
USA
Dow Jones
25,509
2.4
3.9
16.8
UK
FTSE
7,742
0.6
0.5
5.9
Japan
Nikkei
22,598
2.5
0.4
12.5
Germany
DAX
12,676
0.5
(4.0)
3.9
France
CAC
5,502
1.6
(1.8)
5.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 10 August, 2018
Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
Open
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
Open
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
Aug 13, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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